2023_05 Sådan rammer boligskattereformen husejerne

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Lise Nytoft Bergmann, boligøkonom og chefanalytiker i Nordea Kredit
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Boligøkonomens hjørne
Lise Nytoft Bergmann, chefanalytiker og boligøkonom for Nordea Kredit
Boligøkonomens hjørne

Jeg hedder Lise Nytoft Bergmann og er chefanalytiker og boligøkonom i Nordea Kredit. Mit fokusområde er bolig- og rentemarkedet, og gennem statistik og analyser deler jeg ud af min viden om emner, der har betydning for danske boligejere og potentielle boligkøbere.

Lad det være sagt med det samme, så al tvivl kan fejes af bordet: For langt de fleste husejere bliver boligskattereformen ikke nogen gyser. Faktisk kan størstedelen af husejerne over hele landet se frem til at betale mindre i samlede boligskatter efter overgangen til det nye system, end de gør i dag, mens resten skal betale præcis det samme som følge af den vedtagne ”skatterabat”. Det gælder uanset, hvor dyrt huset er.

Det kan lade sig gøre, fordi ejendomsværdiskattesatsen og grundskyldspromillen falder, og derfor kan boligpriserne sagtens stige mærkbart i forhold til den seneste vurdering fra 2011, uden at skattebetalingen gør det samme. Og skulle skatten alligevel stige ved overgangen til det nye system, bliver boligejerne kompenseret gennem en skatterabat, de kan beholde, så længe de selv bor i ejendommen.

Læs også: Nye boligkøbere risikerer at skulle betale sælgers restskat

Derfor vil alle, der har købt og overtaget deres bolig senest 31. december 2023, enten betale mindre eller det samme ved overgangen til det nye system i 2024, som de gør i dag. Så derfor skal ingen boligejere trække flere penge op af lommen som følge af reformen.
 

Stadig vindere og tabere

Når det er sagt, er det dog også vigtigt at understrege, at boligskattereformen stadig skaber vindere og tabere på boligmarkedet. Vinderne er de boligejere, der vil opleve faldende boligskatter, mens taberne er de boligejere, der vil opleve stigende boligskatter på papiret og derfor vil modtage en skatterabat. For selvom skatterabatten betyder, at de samlede boligskatter ikke stiger for ejeren ved overgangen til det nye beskatningssystem, vil fremtidige boligkøbere skulle betale en højere skat end i dag, og det presser priserne ned.

Læs også: Bør man undgå F5-lånet i en højrentetid?
 

Hvordan opgøres skatterabatten?

Konkret kan man forestille sig, at de samlede boligskatter ligger på 20.000 kr. om året efter de nuværende beskatningsregler i 2024, men at beløbet stiger til 25.000 kr., når skatten beregnes efter det nye system. I det tilfælde vil boligejere få en skatterabat på 5.000 kr., som ejeren kan trække fra de samlede boligskatter år efter år, indtil boligen sælges. Stiger boligskatterne derfor yderligere i fx 2025 til 27.000 kr., så kan boligejeren stadig fratrække den oprindelige skatterabat på 5.000 kr. og dermed slippe med en regning på 22.000 kr. Men så nemt har kommende ejere det ikke.
 

Ingen skatterabat til nye købere

Hvis man overtager sin bolig efter 31. december 2023, får man nemlig ikke nogen skatterabat, og i det tilfælde bliver man beskattet af den fulde værdi af den seneste ejendomsvurdering. Det er ikke så rart, for det betyder, at der er færre penge til andre ting, og det vil alt andet lige presse priserne ned. For hvis køberne ikke selv beder om et afslag, vil bankerne indirekte gøre det for dem.

Læs også: Fem lyspunkter, der trækker boligpriserne op

Kommer køberne ned i banken for at få regnet på, hvor meget de kan købe bolig for, vil beløbet nemlig blive sat lavere, hvis der er tale om bolig, hvor skatterne er høje. Og før eller siden vil ejerne af de ”skatteramte” boliger være nødt til at sætte prisen ned.
 

Langt de fleste husejerne behøver ikke at være bekymrede

Min konklusion er altså, at ingen boligejere har udsigt til højere samlede boligskatter i 2024 som følge af overgangen til det system. Og kun relativt få husejere har udsigt til et prisfald på deres hus som følge af reformen. Der er selvfølgelig tale om en alt andet lige-betragtning, og i praksis kan boligpriserne derfor godt falde i 2024, da boligprisudviklingen afhænger af mange andre forhold end boligskatterne.

Som en sidste oplysning kan nævnes, at skatterabatten ikke er et lån men et skattefradrag, hvorfor den ikke skal betales tilbage.

Læs også: Dyrere for pensionister at indefryse grundskylden
 

Så meget stiger eller falder de samlede boligskatter i 2024

Nedenfor er vist tre tabeller med hhv. billige , typiske og dyre huse i de enkelte kommuner.

Tabellerne viser, hvor meget boligejerne betaler i samlede boligskatter i 2022, og hvor meget skatten forventes at stiger til i 2024 for hhv. eksisterende boligejere og nye boligkøbere (der overtaget huset efter 1. januar 2024).

Læs også: Førstegangskøberne overrasker

Billigt hus (se beregninger for hhv. typiske og dyre huse i tabellerne længere nede)

Med et ”billigt hus” menes et hus, hvor 10 pct. af den pågældende kommunes huse er billigere, mens 90 pct. er dyrere.

  Boligskat i 2022 Boligskat i 2024 eksisterende ejere Boligskat i 2024 nye boligkøbere
Albertslund                     30.800                               21.100                           21.100
Allerød                     33.400                               29.800                           29.800
Assens                        7.400                                 4.600                              4.600
Ballerup                     41.000                               33.000                           33.000
Billund                        7.500                                 4.700                              4.700
Bornholm                        6.400                                 5.100                              5.100
Brøndby                     27.700                               21.900                           21.900
Brønderslev                        6.300                                 4.200                              4.200
Dragør                     38.400                               39.100                           39.900
Egedal                     24.900                               23.700                           23.700
Esbjerg                     11.600                                 7.500                              7.500
Fanø                     15.700                               11.900                           11.900
Favrskov                     11.800                                 7.800                              7.800
Faxe                     13.900                                 9.400                              9.400
Fredensborg                     30.700                               27.400                           27.400
Fredericia                     14.700                               11.200                           11.200
Frederiksberg                     79.100                               55.400                           55.400
Frederikshavn                        8.000                                 4.600                              4.600
Frederikssund                     24.200                               17.700                           17.700
Furesø                     34.800                               31.200                           31.200
Faaborg-Midtfyn                        7.800                                 4.900                              4.900
Gentofte                     46.600                               47.400                           51.400
Gladsaxe                     35.000                               33.600                           33.600
Glostrup                     34.600                               29.000                           29.000
Greve                     23.800                               20.100                           20.100
Gribskov                     24.000                               20.600                           20.600
Guldborgsund                        5.700                                 3.700                              3.700
Haderslev                        6.000                                 3.800                              3.800
Halsnæs                     21.200                               17.000                           17.000
Hedensted                        8.700                                 5.600                              5.600
Helsingør                     34.800                               29.300                           29.300
Herlev                     33.800                               24.900                           24.900
Herning                        8.100                                 5.300                              5.300
Hillerød                     26.100                               20.600                           20.600
Hjørring                        6.500                                 3.800                              3.800
Holbæk                     13.300                                 8.300                              8.300
Holstebro                        7.700                                 4.800                              4.800
Horsens                     13.000                                 8.800                              8.800
Hvidovre                     39.800                               33.200                           33.200
Høje-Taastrup                     26.500                               21.700                           21.700
Hørsholm                     40.300                               34.600                           34.600
Ikast-Brande                        8.700                                 5.500                              5.500
Ishøj                     26.600                               18.800                           18.800
Jammerbugt                        5.900                                 3.400                              3.400
Kalundborg                     10.200                                 6.800                              6.800
Kerteminde                     12.900                                 8.200                              8.200
Kolding                     12.900                                 8.800                              8.800
København                     52.800                               34.600                           34.600
Køge                     20.600                               16.200                           16.200
Langeland                        4.600                                 2.800                              2.800
Lejre                     23.600                               17.700                           17.700
Lemvig                        4.200                                 2.800                              2.800
Lolland                        3.800                                 2.500                              2.500
Lyngby-Taarbæk                     46.700                               44.700                           44.700
Læsø                        7.100                                 4.100                              4.100
Mariagerfjord                        7.200                                 4.600                              4.600
Middelfart                        8.900                                 5.400                              5.400
Morsø                        3.400                                 2.300                              2.300
Norddjurs                        7.100                                 4.600                              4.600
Nordfyns                        8.500                                 5.400                              5.400
Nyborg                     10.300                                 6.000                              6.000
Næstved                     12.900                                 9.000                              9.000
Odder                     16.900                               11.400                           11.400
Odense                     15.500                               10.600                           10.600
Odsherred                     11.000                                 6.500                              6.500
Randers                        9.800                                 7.000                              7.000
Rebild                        7.200                                 4.500                              4.500
Ringkøbing-Skjern                        6.300                                 3.900                              3.900
Ringsted                     16.600                               12.000                           12.000
Roskilde                     31.500                               19.600                           19.600
Rudersdal                     53.300                               51.400                           51.400
Rødovre                     37.600                               31.000                           31.000
Samsø                        7.700                                 5.200                              5.200
Silkeborg                     13.400                                 9.200                              9.200
Skanderborg                     17.900                               14.600                           14.600
Skive                        4.100                                 2.500                              2.500
Slagelse                     12.200                                 7.600                              7.600
Solrød                     26.900                               23.400                           23.400
Sorø                     11.700                                 6.900                              6.900
Stevns                     14.000                                 8.400                              8.400
Struer                        5.400                                 3.500                              3.500
Svendborg                     10.300                                 7.100                              7.100
Syddjurs                     10.400                                 7.100                              7.100
Sønderborg                        6.600                                 4.100                              4.100
Thisted                        4.600                                 2.800                              2.800
Tønder                        4.200                                 2.700                              2.700
Tårnby                     34.900                               35.600                           36.800
Vallensbæk                     32.300                               23.900                           23.900
Varde                        7.400                                 5.000                              5.000
Vejen                        6.400                                 3.900                              3.900
Vejle                     12.400                                 8.000                              8.000
Vesthimmerlands                        4.800                                 3.000                              3.000
Viborg                        8.200                                 5.200                              5.200
Vordingborg                        9.800                                 6.400                              6.400
Ærø                        4.800                                 3.300                              3.300
Aabenraa                        5.600                                 3.200                              3.200
Aalborg                     12.700                                 7.400                              7.400
Aarhus                     22.600                               17.900                           17.900

Kilde: SKAT, Vurderingsstyrelsen og Nordea Kredit

 

Typisk hus

Et ”typisk hus” er et hus, hvor 50 pct. af kommunens huse er billigere, og 50 pct. af husene er dyrere.

  Boligskat i 2022 Boligskat i 2024 eksisterende ejere Boligskat i 2024 nye boligkøbere
Albertslund                     39.800                               25.000                           25.000
Allerød                     43.800                               40.100                           40.100
Assens                     12.200                                 7.600                              7.600
Ballerup                     48.100                               39.100                           39.100
Billund                     12.000                                 8.600                              8.600
Bornholm                     10.900                                 9.600                              9.600
Brøndby                     32.300                               25.400                           25.400
Brønderslev                     13.300                                 8.700                              8.700
Dragør                     46.600                               47.500                           48.400
Egedal                     32.200                               29.700                           29.700
Esbjerg                     18.400                               14.000                           14.000
Fanø                     19.200                               16.100                           16.100
Favrskov                     20.700                               16.500                           16.500
Faxe                     18.400                               15.200                           15.200
Fredensborg                     39.000                               36.200                           36.200
Fredericia                     19.100                               16.200                           16.200
Frederiksberg                     82.100                               83.700                           86.400
Frederikshavn                     14.500                                 9.400                              9.400
Frederikssund                     33.200                               27.400                           27.400
Furesø                     45.000                               41.700                           41.700
Faaborg-Midtfyn                     12.700                                 8.300                              8.300
Gentofte                     66.300                               67.300                           73.900
Gladsaxe                     45.700                               43.000                           43.000
Glostrup                     37.400                               31.600                           31.600
Greve                     31.000                               27.000                           27.000
Gribskov                     29.800                               26.500                           26.500
Guldborgsund                     10.800                                 7.100                              7.100
Haderslev                     12.200                                 7.700                              7.700
Halsnæs                     25.200                               21.200                           21.200
Hedensted                     13.200                                 9.000                              9.000
Helsingør                     49.400                               39.600                           39.600
Herlev                     40.400                               30.900                           30.900
Herning                     17.000                               11.800                           11.800
Hillerød                     34.000                               28.400                           28.400
Hjørring                     13.200                                 8.500                              8.500
Holbæk                     22.900                               16.100                           16.100
Holstebro                     17.200                               12.000                           12.000
Horsens                     17.100                               13.900                           13.900
Hvidovre                     44.900                               40.800                           40.800
Høje-Taastrup                     31.000                               25.600                           25.600
Hørsholm                     57.300                               56.800                           56.800
Ikast-Brande                     14.800                               10.200                           10.200
Ishøj                     33.800                               24.600                           24.600
Jammerbugt                     11.700                                 7.100                              7.100
Kalundborg                     16.200                               10.500                           10.500
Kerteminde                     19.600                               13.300                           13.300
Kolding                     23.100                               15.900                           15.900
København                     61.600                               46.600                           46.600
Køge                     26.700                               22.900                           22.900
Langeland                        7.900                                 5.200                              5.200
Lejre                     27.900                               23.300                           23.300
Lemvig                        7.600                                 5.100                              5.100
Lolland                        6.300                                 4.000                              4.000
Lyngby-Taarbæk                     59.600                               56.600                           56.600
Læsø                        9.800                                 7.300                              7.300
Mariagerfjord                     13.900                                 9.700                              9.700
Middelfart                     15.600                               12.000                           12.000
Morsø                        6.700                                 4.400                              4.400
Norddjurs                     12.200                                 9.100                              9.100
Nordfyns                     14.900                               10.400                           10.400
Nyborg                     17.100                               10.400                           10.400
Næstved                     20.500                               14.800                           14.800
Odder                     27.000                               20.900                           20.900
Odense                     20.400                               16.300                           16.300
Odsherred                     16.200                               10.000                           10.000
Randers                     18.700                               14.100                           14.100
Rebild                     14.500                               12.300                           12.300
Ringkøbing-Skjern                     12.300                                 8.300                              8.300
Ringsted                     22.300                               17.700                           17.700
Roskilde                     38.300                               31.600                           31.600
Rudersdal                     78.200                               65.400                           65.400
Rødovre                     45.000                               40.500                           40.500
Samsø                     10.200                                 8.200                              8.200
Silkeborg                     28.000                               20.500                           20.500
Skanderborg                     25.900                               22.100                           22.100
Skive                        9.400                                 6.000                              6.000
Slagelse                     19.200                               12.900                           12.900
Solrød                     35.300                               33.000                           33.000
Sorø                     18.500                               13.100                           13.100
Stevns                     19.700                               14.700                           14.700
Struer                     11.800                                 7.700                              7.700
Svendborg                     17.600                               13.700                           13.700
Syddjurs                     19.100                               14.400                           14.400
Sønderborg                     13.900                                 8.900                              8.900
Thisted                        9.100                                 6.200                              6.200
Tønder                        7.400                                 4.600                              4.600
Tårnby                     38.600                               39.300                           42.800
Vallensbæk                     37.600                               30.000                           30.000
Varde                     13.800                                 9.100                              9.100
Vejen                     10.600                                 6.800                              6.800
Vejle                     21.800                               16.000                           16.000
Vesthimmerlands                        9.300                                 6.000                              6.000
Viborg                     15.800                               10.900                           10.900
Vordingborg                     15.700                               10.800                           10.800
Ærø                        7.300                                 6.200                              6.200
Aabenraa                     10.500                                 6.200                              6.200
Aalborg                     21.800                               18.100                           18.100
Aarhus                     30.500                               27.500                           27.500

Kilde: SKAT, Vurderingsstyrelsen og Nordea Kredit

 

Dyrt hus

Med et ”dyrt hus” menes et hus, hvor 90 pct. af den pågældende kommunes huse er billigere, mens 10 pct. er dyrere.

  Boligskat i 2022 Boligskat i 2024 eksisterende ejere Boligskat i 2024 nye boligkøbere
Albertslund                     51.600                               33.000                           33.000
Allerød                     51.100                               51.000                           51.000
Assens                     17.900                               13.600                           13.600
Ballerup                     55.100                               50.100                           50.100
Billund                     16.900                               14.000                           14.000
Bornholm                     17.400                               17.700                           19.000
Brøndby                     39.300                               32.800                           32.800
Brønderslev                     19.100                               14.200                           14.200
Dragør                     64.500                               65.600                           67.800
Egedal                     41.600                               38.600                           38.600
Esbjerg                     23.600                               21.700                           21.700
Fanø                     22.800                               22.900                           22.900
Favrskov                     27.000                               25.800                           25.800
Faxe                     22.500                               21.000                           21.000
Fredensborg                     56.500                               55.200                           55.200
Fredericia                     26.400                               24.100                           24.100
Frederiksberg                     93.700                               95.400                         153.700
Frederikshavn                     23.300                               20.400                           20.400
Frederikssund                     41.600                               37.600                           37.600
Furesø                     59.900                               60.800                           61.500
Faaborg-Midtfyn                     19.100                               15.000                           15.000
Gentofte                   107.100                             108.300                         164.800
Gladsaxe                     59.800                               59.800                           59.800
Glostrup                     44.200                               40.400                           40.400
Greve                     39.900                               38.100                           38.100
Gribskov                     39.600                               38.500                           38.500
Guldborgsund                     18.800                               14.800                           14.800
Haderslev                     20.000                               15.700                           15.700
Halsnæs                     28.900                               29.200                           30.000
Hedensted                     18.200                               14.800                           14.800
Helsingør                     67.300                               64.100                           64.100
Herlev                     47.000                               42.100                           42.100
Herning                     22.500                               18.900                           18.900
Hillerød                     42.000                               39.500                           39.500
Hjørring                     20.600                               15.200                           15.200
Holbæk                     30.100                               28.100                           28.100
Holstebro                     22.400                               19.100                           19.100
Horsens                     24.600                               23.000                           23.000
Hvidovre                     52.200                               53.200                           55.800
Høje-Taastrup                     37.300                               33.500                           33.500
Hørsholm                     95.700                               89.700                           89.700
Ikast-Brande                     18.700                               14.800                           14.800
Ishøj                     41.500                               34.400                           34.400
Jammerbugt                     17.700                               17.800                           21.200
Kalundborg                     23.200                               18.000                           18.000
Kerteminde                     27.400                               24.200                           24.200
Kolding                     28.700                               24.000                           24.000
København                     62.900                               64.100                           67.800
Køge                     33.100                               33.500                           34.100
Langeland                     13.100                               12.600                           12.600
Lejre                     34.500                               33.700                           33.700
Lemvig                     15.600                               11.500                           11.500
Lolland                     12.300                                 8.700                              8.700
Lyngby-Taarbæk                     79.500                               79.800                           79.800
Læsø                     11.900                               11.600                           13.400
Mariagerfjord                     20.600                               16.300                           16.300
Middelfart                     24.000                               21.700                           21.700
Morsø                     14.900                               10.800                           10.800
Norddjurs                     17.800                               14.100                           14.100
Nordfyns                     20.400                               17.300                           17.300
Nyborg                     22.900                               17.900                           17.900
Næstved                     25.500                               21.800                           21.800
Odder                     33.700                               27.700                           27.700
Odense                     28.100                               28.400                           28.400
Odsherred                     21.600                               16.000                           16.000
Randers                     23.700                               20.800                           20.800
Rebild                     24.200                               20.600                           20.600
Ringkøbing-Skjern                     20.000                               15.700                           15.700
Ringsted                     28.200                               25.000                           25.000
Roskilde                     51.600                               49.700                           49.700
Rudersdal                     95.700                               96.900                           99.000
Rødovre                     53.800                               54.000                           54.000
Samsø                     13.000                               12.900                           16.200
Silkeborg                     36.300                               34.400                           34.400
Skanderborg                     33.900                               34.000                           34.000
Skive                     15.700                               11.300                           11.300
Slagelse                     25.100                               20.400                           20.400
Solrød                     53.500                               50.400                           50.400
Sorø                     28.600                               24.200                           24.200
Stevns                     28.600                               28.300                           28.600
Struer                     16.300                               11.100                           11.100
Svendborg                     28.400                               27.100                           27.100
Syddjurs                     26.800                               25.600                           25.600
Sønderborg                     22.200                               18.100                           18.100
Thisted                     16.300                               13.100                           13.100
Tønder                     11.900                                 9.300                              9.300
Tårnby                     45.200                               46.000                           53.700
Vallensbæk                     49.800                               46.700                           46.700
Varde                     20.900                               16.800                           16.800
Vejen                     16.200                               11.400                           11.400
Vejle                     31.200                               27.900                           27.900
Vesthimmerlands                     16.000                               12.700                           12.700
Viborg                     24.800                               19.500                           19.500
Vordingborg                     22.800                               18.500                           18.500
Ærø                     11.700                               10.900                           10.900
Aabenraa                     19.000                               17.100                           17.100
Aalborg                     29.900                               30.300                           32.200
Aarhus                     49.500                               48.300                           48.300

Kilde: SKAT, Vurderingsstyrelsen og Nordea Kredit

 

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